Thanksgiving will test whether airlines have done enough to insulate their operations from shocks that have roiled air travel in recent months.
The Transportation Security Administration said it expects Thanksgiving travel to come close to pre-pandemic levels, with 20 million people likely to pass through U.S. airports over a 10-day period. Airlines including Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. said they expect the Sunday after Thanksgiving to be the busiest day since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The jump in travelers puts pressure on airlines to deliver a smooth experience after months of stumbles. Short-staffed carriers have been more easily knocked off course. They have struggled to recover from bad weather and other disruptions that they previously might have taken in stride, analysts and consultants said, resulting in dayslong cascades of cancellations and snarling travel for thousands of passengers.
“The network is brittle," said Samuel Engel, senior vice president of aviation at consulting firm ICF. “With the slightest slip, the airlines are showing they have limited ability to accommodate disruption."
Nine of the largest U.S. airlines canceled 1.9% of flights from June through the end of October this year—a slight uptick from the nearly 1.6% they canceled during the same period in 2019, according to figures from Cirium, an aviation data provider.
Frustratingly for travelers, there have been more days of acute misery during that time frame. There were 147 days when these airlines canceled 5% or more of their flights, compared with 85 such days in 2019, according to an analysis of operational data by Brett Snyder, who writes the Cranky Flier blog and runs a concierge travel service.
Airlines have been taking steps to try to address operational problems in time for the holiday surge in demand.
Southwest Airlines Co. and Spirit Airlines Inc. tempered ambitious plans, scaling back the number of flights from what they had previously planned to offer and keeping more employees on call.
American Airlines Group Inc. is paying hefty premiums to workers to make sure it can staff flights, including $1,000 bonuses for some workers and as much as triple pay for flight attendants with perfect attendance. Chief Executive Officer Doug Parker has said the carrier is well-prepared in terms of staffing.
Southwest is offering extra pay to pilots and granting frequent flier points to certain workers for shifts over the holidays, which they can redeem for travel.
JetBlue Airways Corp. is also offering an extra $1,000 to qualifying flight attendants who don’t call out from work through early January. While flight attendants are encouraged to take time off if they’re sick, that will require a doctor’s note, according to a message to flight attendants.
“Our customers have been telling us they’re ready to travel and they are counting us to deliver," Ed Baklor, the airline’s head of customer care, wrote in the message.
Even with recent cutbacks, airlines are planning busy schedules around Thanksgiving. They are offering 19 million domestic seats the week of the holiday—up 46% from last year and within 9% of 2019 levels, according to data provider OAG.
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